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PublishedOctober 02, 2019

A CHE integration workshop links science updates with operational requirements

PublishedOctober 02, 2019

A CHE integration workshop links science updates with operational requirements

The CHE Project partners supporting the prototyping of a first CO2 Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) system have met at ECMWF on the 25th-26th of September for a fruitful set of discussions that benefitted from nearly 2 years of developments within the project. The 2-day workshop gathered around 30 scientists from the CHE consortium and ECMWF and covered the 4 main building blocks of the MVS prototype: the global observing system, the modelling chain, the assimilation methodologies, and the uncertainty representation. 

A set of priorities was discussed to define a first configuration of the CO2 MVS prototype system that will preliminary run by 2021. The three spatial scales considered (Global, Regional, and Hotspots detection) will have different setup and observation/modelling possibilities. A multi scale data assimilation methodology will aim at ensuring consistency across scales, and the global scale system will serve the regional and local modelling efforts providing timely boundary conditions and global ensemble capabilities.

 For this purpose, an early warning system at global scale will be set up to support the satellite observations monitoring, the regional/local systems and to highlight areas of attention for CO2 emissions detected with the available near-real-time observations. A separate delay-mode reanalysis with best quality observations and ancillary information will provide the support for the Global Stocktake starting in 2023 (that will focus on the year 2021) as set by the Paris Agreement.

 The use of existing Carbon Cycle and Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation Systems will serve as design tool to allow investigating optimality of assimilation windows and impact of observation availability, both for the present observing systems as well as for the future CO2 mission, foreseen to join the Copernicus Sentinels fleet by 2026.

CHE WP5 Group
Participants of the CHE WP5 Workshop at ECMWF


CHE WP5 Meeting

The global ensemble system has a high level of requirements connected to the kilometre-scale resolution requirements. This is a requisite to represent major CO2 emission sources and their evolution in CO2 atmospheric concentrations. Both the modelling and the data assimilation techniques will be adapted to benefit from the high resolution and exploit the information provided by the ensemble techniques that can objectively characterise uncertainties coming from different components: the atmospheric transport of CO2, the natural and the anthropogenic CO2 emissions at the surface.  

The need to benchmark the MVS system with independent observations was highlighted and the observing networks currently available are expected to improve over time to better support a step-wise implementation with incremental improvements.

The high-level requirement of the in-situ component of the MVS has been presented in the new CO2 Green Report published by the European Commission on the 26th of September.

Continuous efforts in the four building blocks listed above is foreseen to address potential weaknesses and relying on the Earth System approach that integrate all available observations and propagate information spatially and temporally via enhanced modelling and data assimilation, as already proved to support other Copernicus Services such as the Copernicus Climate Change and the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (C3S and CAMS).

The definition of the portfolio of CO2 information products that can support and engage with CO2 users and stakeholders will be a key additive investment area in the pre-operational phase. The workshop outcomes will be finalised in the progress reports of the CHE integration work package that will be delivered by the end 2019.